Kishida Withdraws from LDP Presidential Race; Multiple Contenders Compete for Next Prime Minister

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2024-08-15

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According to an NHK report on August 14, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will not participate in the LDP's presidential election scheduled for September, indicating that he will not continue in his role as Prime Minister. Kishida has served as LDP president since September 2021, marking a full three years in office. However, his administration has faced poor approval ratings and constant internal pressure from within the party. With the LDP still holding a majority in the Upper House of Parliament, the new president will also be appointed as the next Prime Minister.

The race to succeed Kishida has become highly competitive, with several prominent figures vying for the position. These include former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, multiple ministers such as Taro Kono and Toshimitsu Motegi, Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, and younger politicians like former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi. Candidates must first receive recommendations from 20 party members and then secure a total of 764 votes, including both parliamentary and party member votes, in the first round. In the second round, the number of party member votes will be reduced from 382 to 47, with a total of 429 votes remaining.

Due to a previous scandal involving kickbacks within party factions, most of the six LDP factions have disbanded, leaving only the Aso faction. Kishida's election in 2021 was strongly supported by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s faction, while Taro Aso's 2008 election was similarly backed by Abe's predecessor faction. Without the influence of these factions, the direction of the vote and the election outcome are harder to predict. Although some members of Parliament still organize study and exchange meetings, the public is not pleased with such factional operations. The LDP's ability to rejuvenate itself will depend on the results of this election.