International trade statistics: trends in third quarter 2019

G20 international merchandise trade continues to slow in third quarter of 2019

2019-11-29

G20 international merchandise trade (in current US dollars, seasonally adjusted) continued its downward trend in the third quarter of 2019, approaching two-year lows. Compared with the second quarter of 2019, exports contracted by 0.7% and imports by 0.9%, partly reflecting a nearly 20% fall in oil prices and depreciations in most major currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar.

G20-trade-500-11-2019_0.png

Trade remained weak across all G20 regions in the third quarter of 2019. The slowdown was particularly pronounced in the European Union, with exports contracting by 1.8% and imports by 0.4%. Exports and imports fell across all major EU economies, with declines of 3.6% and 1.7%, respectively, in France, and of 0.4% and 1.8%, respectively, in Germany. In Italy, trade fell for the sixth straight quarter, with exports and imports decreasing by 1.2% and 1.0% in Q3 2019.

In the United Kingdom, partly reflecting a significant fall in the value of Sterling (down 4.3% against the US dollar) and on-going Brexit uncertainty, exports contracted by 3.3% and imports by 1.6%.

Imports were also weak across all major Asian economies, contracting by 9.7% in India, 2.3% in Korea, 1.8% in China, and 0.4% in Indonesia. However, in Japan imports picked up by 0.5% as the yen appreciated against the US dollar. Exports fared generally better in the region, picking up by 4.1%, 2.2% and 1.6%, respectively, in Indonesia, Japan and China, but they contracted in India (by 3.1%) and Korea (by 0.4%). Reflecting the fall in oil prices, Saudi Arabia’s exports dropped by 6.8%.

In North America, exports from the United States fell marginally, by 0.2%, while imports decreased by 0.7%. United States exports to China remain significantly below the levels seen before the recent bilateral trade tensions, despite a pick-up in the second quarter (by 1.9%), and imports from China to the United States were down 2.1%. Mexico’s exports and imports contracted (by 0.2% and 0.4%), while Canada recorded a 1.7% decline in exports but a pick-up in imports (of 0.4%).

In South America, Brazil’s exports contracted by 3.5% while imports picked up by 15.3%, in part reflecting a spike in imports under the Repetro regime[1], which provides tax incentives on the purchase of inputs to the oil and gas industry. A significant increase in shipments to China fuelled Argentina’s exports (up 5.1% - the highest increase among G20 members in the third quarter of 2019).

Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development