Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, September 2019

Growth continues to ease in largest OECD economies

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2019-09-10

Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend six to nine months ahead, continue to anticipate easing growth momentum in the United States and the euro area as a whole, particularly in Germany.

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The CLIs continue to signal stable growth momentum in the OECD area as a whole, France, and Canada. In the United Kingdom, for which large margins of error persist due to Brexit uncertainty, the assessment remains for stable growth momentum, albeit around historically low trend growth rates. In Japan and Italy, the CLIs continue to point to stabilising growth momentum.

Among major emerging economies, stable growth momentum remains the assessment for Brazil, Russia and China (for the industrial sector). However, signs of easing growth momentum are emerging in India, driven by the sharp decline in the automotive industry.

Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

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