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The 62nd Munich Security Conference (MSC) officially released the “Munich Security Report 2026” on the 9th, under the theme “Under Destruction.” The report issues a stark warning about the shift in U.S. power politics since World War II, arguing that the world order is unraveling as a result. Large-scale disruption has become the norm, replacing the cautious reforms and policy adjustments of the past. In particular, under the leadership of Donald Trump, the United States has emerged as the most powerful “demolition man” within the existing rules and institutions, ushering the world into an era of “wrecking-ball politics.”

The multilateral institutions, economic openness, and human rights values long upheld by the United States in the postwar era have been abandoned in favor of an emphasis on “power and deals.” Wolfgang Ischinger, Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, stated that the shift in U.S. policy has made it “the elephant in the room,” exerting a profound and unavoidable impact on the global security system. European countries have begun to view the United States as a threat rather than an ally. Meanwhile, Washington’s inconsistent support for Ukraine, its conditional commitments to NATO, and its interest in Greenland’s territory and resources have further deepened Europe’s security anxieties. In addition, America’s wavering policy toward China and its harsh treatment of allies on defense spending and trade issues have triggered a serious “crisis of confidence” in the United States.

In 2025, the United States launched the so-called “Liberation Day” tariff war, severely damaging global trade and economic growth. The dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has also forced significant cuts or suspensions in aid to impoverished countries, potentially leading to an additional 14 million deaths by 2030. The report calls on rule-based democratic nations not merely to complain about the status quo, but to demonstrate political courage, strengthen cooperation among themselves, and invest in their own capabilities and resources. The future will depend on whether countries are willing to assume greater responsibility amid turbulence and work together to rebuild international consensus around trust and rules.

On the 9th, the U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed H.R. 1531, the “Taiwan Protection Act,” by a vote of 395 to 2, formally establishing “economic sanctions” as a means to deter China’s military threats. The bill stipulates that if China’s actions pose a direct threat to Taiwan’s security, economic stability, or social system, the U.S. executive branch will be authorized to initiate procedures to sever China’s ties with key global financial systems such as the G20. The bill will now be sent to the U.S. Senate for a vote and will take effect only after being signed by President Trump.

The legislation, which enjoys strong bipartisan support, requires that if tensions in the Taiwan Strait escalate, the U.S. president must notify core financial authorities, including the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve, and take “all necessary steps” to exclude China from six major international financial systems. Republican Representative Frank Lucas noted that the sanctions would include influential international economic and financial organizations such as the G20, the Financial Stability Board, and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.

Republican Representative French Hill stated bluntly that the enactment of this bill would ensure that if China launches aggression, it would have to bear extremely heavy economic and diplomatic costs, thereby establishing a substantive deterrent barrier. However, while demonstrating hard power, the bill also preserves diplomatic flexibility: if the president determines that implementing sanctions would harm U.S. interests, a waiver authority may be exercised.

Although the House has demonstrated strong resolve, the bill must still be passed by the Senate and ultimately signed by President Trump to become law. In the past, similar bills have passed the House but failed to receive a Senate vote. Whether this legislation can complete the process in the current Congress and be sent to President Trump for signature remains to be seen.

Preliminary results of Thailand’s general election are in, showing that the progressive People’s Party—long the frontrunner in pre-election polls—won only 118 seats, far behind the conservative Bhumjaithai Party, which secured 193 seats. Bhumjaithai leader and incumbent prime minister Anutin Charnvirakul declared victory on the 8th, while the People’s Party conceded it would be unable to form a government. The outcome has surprised observers and left many young voters who had hoped for reform deeply disappointed.

As the successor to the Move Forward Party, the People’s Party carried forward a reformist and progressive agenda and enjoyed strong backing among younger voters. Opinion polls ahead of the election consistently showed the party in the lead, bolstering supporters’ confidence. The final results, however, delivered a decisive win for conservative forces. Many young people took to social media to express frustration and sadness, with some even saying they wanted to leave Thailand. Jednipit Jay Wongjedjan, 34, wrote on Facebook: “Since I turned 18, I haven’t seen any real change. How much longer do I have to wait?”

Pratsakun Cheepcheawcharnchai, president of the political science student association at Chulalongkorn University, said pre-election student surveys showed more than 60 percent of students were hopeful about the vote, making the outcome particularly shocking and disheartening. According to Thai PBS, as of 5 p.m. local time on February 8, Bhumjaithai had won 193 of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives, followed by the People’s Party with 118 seats and the Pheu Thai Party with 74. Official results are expected to be announced by April 9 at the latest.

In Japan’s House of Representatives election, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi not only secured an outright majority on its own, but also surpassed the two-thirds threshold required to propose constitutional amendments, making Takaichi the biggest winner of the election.

In this round of Lower House elections, the LDP won a total of 316 seats, while the Japan Innovation Party, which forms a governing coalition with the LDP, captured 36 seats. Together, the two parties hold 352 seats—enough to independently initiate constitutional revision. Experts note that Japan will be compelled to seek a balance between stabilizing relations with China and strengthening the U.S.–Japan alliance, and that the election outcome will directly shape the country’s national security posture and foreign policy trajectory.

A public opinion poll released on January 24 by All-Nippon News Network showed that voters’ top policy priorities were responding to economic stagnation and rising prices, followed by pension and social security reform, and then diplomacy and national security. The results indicate that livelihood issues and security concerns have jointly emerged as central themes of the election. Within the U.S.–Japan relationship, security has consistently remained at the core, with debates extending to defense spending. In December last year, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said Washington had asked allies including Japan to raise defense spending to 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) over the coming years. Tetsuo Kotani, a professor at Meikai University, noted that regardless of whether Japan fully complies, the U.S. demand will inevitably place heavy pressure on public finances and become an unavoidable issue within the U.S.–Japan alliance.

Kyodo News editorial board member Masahiko Hisae argued that regardless of which party is in power, Japan must confront the burden posed by a sharp increase in defense spending. He added that revising the three key national security documents could lead to controversial measures such as tax hikes, further intensifying domestic divisions, and that party positions on these issues would become an important reference for voters.

Naoyuki Hayashi, former political editor at Asahi Shimbun, said the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives will directly influence the direction and priorities of future policymaking. Many experts broadly agree that this election is not only about the structure of political power, but will also profoundly shape Japan’s future diplomatic and security strategy. The positioning of the U.S.–Japan alliance, the burden of defense costs, China policy, and how Japan maintains autonomous security amid global uncertainty are all key issues voters must carefully consider.

On diplomacy and security policy, Hayashi called on Japan to foster consensus through calm and rational public debate at both parliamentary and governmental levels in order to establish a long-term foreign policy direction. Whether managing the U.S.–Japan alliance or relations with China, he said, discussions must be grounded in restraint and pragmatism. He also noted that while Japan will inevitably adjust its approach to China in line with U.S. policy shifts, current Sino-Japanese relations are already at a low point, placing Japan in an even more difficult position. The government, he argued, needs to fundamentally rethink ways to improve bilateral relations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Washington has recently put pressure on Kyiv, urging a ceasefire in the Russia–Ukraine war before June this year and calling on Ukraine to demonstrate more concrete diplomatic efforts. In response, Zelenskyy said Ukraine is willing to advance the peace process and has proposed hosting direct Russia–Ukraine talks next week as an important step toward restarting negotiations.

Zelenskyy noted that the United States has made it clear in recent high-level communications that it hopes to see a de-escalation of the fighting to prevent the conflict from becoming protracted and causing greater harm to global security and the economy. He stressed that Ukraine is not rejecting peace, but any ceasefire or agreement must be based on respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

According to multiple foreign media reports, Zelenskyy has instructed his diplomatic team to engage with international partners to assess the feasibility of holding talks in a third country or under the framework of an international organization, and has expressed hope that Russia would send representatives with real decision-making authority. Ukraine has also called on the United States and European allies to continue providing security and political support, and to avoid exerting excessive pressure before negotiations yield tangible results.

Russia has yet to issue an official response to Zelenskyy’s proposal. Analysts point out that Washington’s desire to facilitate a ceasefire before midyear is linked to U.S. domestic political timelines and adjustments in its foreign policy strategy. However, deep divisions remain between Russia and Ukraine on core issues, making a comprehensive ceasefire highly uncertain in the short term.

Ahead of talks between the United States and Iran held in Oman on the 6th, the U.S. Virtual Embassy in Iran issued a security alert urging U.S. citizens to leave Iran immediately, while also providing evacuation options that do not rely on U.S. government assistance.

This meeting marked the first official, formal encounter between the United States and Iran since clashes erupted in June 2025. The U.S. delegation was led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of Donald Trump, who met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Prior to the talks, the two sides remained sharply divided. The United States demanded that Iran abandon its stockpile of enriched uranium, limit its ballistic missile program, and cease funding and providing military assistance. Iran responded that these demands violated its sovereignty and were unacceptable.

Trump stated that if Iran refused to accept U.S. demands, the United States would launch military strikes. Iran reacted strongly, saying the U.S. demands seriously infringed on Iran’s sovereignty, and warned that if attacked, it would retaliate militarily against Israel and U.S. military targets in the Middle East.

Bob McNally, president of the geopolitical and energy analysis firm Rapidan Energy Group, warned that the positions of the United States and Iran are far apart, making the chances of reaching an agreement very low. He predicted that military hostilities between the two sides are likely in the future, potentially escalating into a large-scale military conflict.

According to media reports, multiple terrorist attacks occurred on the 3rd in villages in central Nigeria. Armed militants stormed the villages, setting fire to homes and shops and carrying out execution-style killings of local residents by binding their hands. The attacks resulted in a total of 170 deaths. Security forces are currently searching for survivors and pursuing the perpetrators.

The reports state that the incidents took place in the Woro and Nuku communities in Kwara State, central Nigeria. Local lawmaker Saidu Baba Ahmed said the militants looted the villages and forcibly gathered residents, demanding that they renounce their loyalty to the state and instead accept the extremist group’s imposition of Sharia law. When villagers resisted, the attackers launched a massacre.

The reports also noted that, according to estimates by the Red Cross, the death toll exceeds 170. Kwara State Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq issued a statement strongly condemning the attacks, describing them as retaliation by extremist groups against recent military crackdown operations. Local officials added that the militants had assured villagers five months earlier that they would not carry out any attacks, but ultimately violated that agreement.

Recently, the U.S. military arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and transferred him to New York to stand trial on drug-related charges. On the 3rd, several thousand Venezuelans marched and demonstrated in the capital, Caracas, demanding that the United States release Maduro.

The march, called for by the Venezuelan government, stretched for several hundred meters. Protesters chanted slogans such as “Venezuela needs Maduro” in the streets of Caracas. Many of the demonstrators were public-sector workers.

Venezuela’s acting president, Rodríguez, is a staunch supporter of Maduro and previously served as his vice president. U.S. President Trump stated that he would be willing to work with Rodríguez if she agreed to open up Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. Under immense pressure, Rodríguez began releasing political prisoners and opening Venezuela’s nationalized oil and gas industry to private investment.

The U.S. special envoy, Laura Dogu, recently arrived in Venezuela, restoring diplomatic relations between the two countries that had been severed in 2019 under Maduro.

Voting for the House of Representatives election will take place on February 8. Parties will compete for 289 single-member district seats and 176 proportional representation seats, for a total of 465 seats. Prior to the official announcement of the election, the LDP held 138 single-member district seats and 60 proportional seats (198 in total), while the Japan Innovation Party held 22 and 12 seats respectively (34 in total). The Centrist alliance held 106 single-member district seats and 61 proportional seats (167 in total).

Japan’s House of Representatives election has recently entered its final stage, with the electoral outlook becoming increasingly clear. According to multiple opinion polls and political analyses, the long-ruling LDP is widely viewed as the favorite in this election, expected to secure a significant advantage in seats and further consolidate its governing position, maintaining its dominance in the National Diet.

Analysts point out that the LDP’s continued strength in this election is closely tied to its long-established organizational mobilization capacity, extensive local grassroots networks, and policy continuity in economic and foreign affairs. In the face of multiple challenges—including domestic inflationary pressures, a declining birthrate and aging population, and an increasingly volatile international environment—the LDP has emphasized the appeal of a “stable government,” highlighting policy consistency and governing experience, which has successfully attracted considerable voter support.

On the opposition side, although major opposition forces such as the Constitutional Democratic Party have attempted to center their campaigns on livelihood issues, political reform, and oversight of the ruling party, their overall momentum still falls short of that of the LDP. In some electoral districts, vote splitting has further weakened the opposition’s ability to form an effective united front, which is widely regarded as a major disadvantage in this election.

Political observers note that if the LDP ultimately achieves a landslide victory, it will enjoy greater leadership in advancing key legislation in the Diet, including economic structural reforms, adjustments to defense policy, and long-term measures to address demographic changes. However, some scholars caution that a numerical advantage in seats does not equate to unconditional public support. The ruling party must still take seriously public concerns over rising prices, stagnant wage growth, and political transparency.

In addition, voter turnout in this House of Representatives election has also drawn significant attention. Japan has long faced the issue of low political participation among younger voters, and how to raise overall engagement remains a shared challenge for all political parties. The election results will not only shape the political landscape but also reflect Japanese society’s expectations for the country’s future policy direction.

Winter storm Kristin swept across central and northern Portugal on the night of January 27, triggering flooding, landslides, and severe damage to infrastructure, with at least five deaths confirmed so far. On February 1, Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro announced that the government will allocate €2.5 billion (about US$2.9 billion) for post-disaster recovery efforts, including a 90-day suspension of mortgage and loan repayments for affected residents. In addition, €400 million will be invested to repair damaged roads and railways to ensure the transport network is restored as quickly as possible.

As more heavy rainfall is forecast, Montenegro said after an emergency cabinet meeting that the government will extend the “state of disaster”—one level below a state of emergency—in the hardest-hit areas until February 8. The measure, which took effect on January 29, grants authorities expanded powers to enforce safety measures and coordinate emergency responses. The prime minister warned that evacuations may be necessary in some areas, as “the soil is already saturated.” Portugal’s Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has placed the entire country under alert until February 2, forecasting continued heavy rain and strong winds with gusts of up to 100 kilometers per hour.

Portugal’s civil protection chief André Fernandes Silvestre said the weather outlook is “extremely severe,” noting that the ground can no longer absorb additional rainfall and that the risk of flooding is imminent. Civil protection authorities have sent SMS alerts to residents in multiple regions nationwide, warning of flood threats. According to data from power grid operator E-Redes, around 167,000 households were still without electricity as of February 1—down significantly from more than one million immediately after the storm—but recovery efforts remain ongoing as the government continues to focus on reconstruction and disaster prevention.