Trump Threatens to Double Tariffs on Mexico Amid Fears Over Northbound Migrant Caravan

With the U.S. midterm elections having just concluded, over a thousand Central American migrants—hopeful for a potential loosening of immigration policies—have formed a caravan and set off north on foot. On the 12th,U.S. President Donald Trump immediately ramped up pressure on Mexico, threatening to double tariffs. In response to Trump’s warning, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated that migrant numbers have already dropped significantly and that authorities will continue persuading migrants to return to their home countries.
The caravan, consisting of roughly 1,500 people, departed on the 10th from the southern city of Tapachula near the Guatemalan border. Reports indicate that the migrants are banking on the Democratic Party—which won control of both chambers of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections and will take office next January—to open pathways for them to live and work in the United States. During her regular press conference, Sheinbaum confirmed that a group is heading toward the U.S., but emphasized that no migrant caravans have reached the U.S.-Mexico border since Trump returned to power last year.
In July of this year, Trump decided against extending the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA),opting instead to hold separate bilateral negotiations with Canada and Mexico. To meet U.S. demands, Mexico has already tightened imports of foreign steel and aluminum, cutting shipments from countries such as China,South Korea, and India by approximately 30%. Amid heightened U.S.-Mexico tensions over immigration, U.S.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence in a CNBC interview today that the United States will be able to reach separate trade deals with both Canada and Mexico.
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