Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, June 2014

Composite leading indicators continue to suggest that momentum is weakening in most major emerging economies but stable in the OECD area

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2014-06-11

Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to suggest that the growth momentum is weakening in most major emerging economies.CLIs point to growth below trend in Brazil, China and Russia. Nevertheless, the CLI tentatively indicates a positive turning point in India, suggesting a return to faster growth.

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Stable growth momentum in the OECD area

For the OECD as a whole, and for the United States and Canada, CLIs point to stable growth momentum. The same is true for the United Kingdom, where the growth momentum is stabilising at above-trend rates. The CLI for Japan points to a disruption in its growth momentum although this may reflect one-off factors.

In the Euro Area as a whole, and in Italy, CLIs continue to indicate a positive change in momentum. In Germany and France,CLIs point to stable growth momentum.

Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

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