Germany's Conservative Alliance Returns to Power: Merz Begins Forming Coalition Government
Germany’s conservative alliance (CDU/CSU) won the federal election on the 23rd, while the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) failed to pass the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation. This outcome increases the likelihood of a coalition government between the CDU/CSU and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). However, deep policy divisions between the two parties, along with CDU leader Friedrich Merz’s relentless attacks on the ruling SPD during the campaign, have made coalition negotiations highly challenging.
According to public broadcaster ARD's projections, Merz's CDU/CSU secured 28.8% of the vote, making it the largest party. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved its best result in history with 20.2%, ranking second. Meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD suffered a severe defeat, receiving only 16.2%—its worst performance since World War II.
Merz's CDU/CSU and the SPD face difficulties in forming a coalition due to disagreements on immigration, fiscal policy, and other key issues. Merz had previously launched fierce criticisms against the SPD and endorsed AfD-backed proposals to tighten immigration, angering the Social Democrats. This move was seen as a breach of Germany’s political “firewall” against far-right cooperation. Nonetheless, internal opposition within the SPD could help facilitate negotiations, with expectations that the coalition government will be finalized by late April.
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